Erstellt am: 19.06.2008 Autor: Philipp Schweers Status: Senior
Yemen: Renewed Houthi-Conflict
The smoldering conflict in Yemen's northern Saada governorate between Shia-rebels and Yemen´s central government is escalating. An analysis by DIAS-Fellow Philipp Schweers.
For the past four to five weeks fierce clashes between Houthi-rebels and Yemeni army personnel have continued to devastate the governorates of Saada and Amran in Yemen`s northwest with dozens of casualties on both sides.
Since a 2 May bombing attack in the provincial capital of Saada in which 16 people were killed, including seven government soldiers, the situation in the region has continued to spiral downward, with both sides blaming each other for initiating the conflict.
On 13 May, the local newsportal YemenOnline reported bloody clashes1 in the Saada governorate with more than 40 fighters killed and dozens injured. There were also indications that the clashes had spilled over into the neighbouring Amran governorate.
In early June, the conflict entered a new phase, with fighting erupting in Yemen's capital, Sana`a, when Houthi-Rebels infiltrated2 some eastern suburbs of the city and positioned their forces on Djebel Jamima, a strategically important mountain overlooking much of the capital.
Although Yemen's Defense Ministry announced officially on 27 May via radio and several newspapers that military forces had pushed the rebels off the mountain, the security situation in Yemen remains alarming.
Especially in the northern districts of Yemen, the violence has continued to escalate, according to the Yemen Times, the country's most influential English-language daily.
"Regarding the security situation in northern Sa'ada governorate, local sources confirm that fierce confrontations are taking place between government forces and Houthi supporters, with dozens on both sides reportedly killed or injured," the daily reported on 28 May.
The following week, the Yemen Times reported, that hundreds of people were fleeing3 from Saada to neighbouring districts.
Shiite Rebels vs. Central Government
The Houthi-rebels, named after their first leader, Hussein Badraddin al-Houthi, who was killed by government troops in September 2004, are adherents of a Shiite Islam and members of the Zaidi sect.
Within the Yemeni society, they are a religious minority dominated by a majority of Sunni Muslims. All rebels are members of the al-Houthi founded “Faithful Youth”-movement - in arabic “al-Shabab al-Mou´min” – which advances very anti-American and anti-Israelian views and denies the legitimacy of the central government.
The Yemeni government under President Ali Abdullah Saleh blames the Houthi-movement for trying to restore the Zaidi imamate as well as for the establishment of militant-religious schools.
Since last year Qatar has been trying to mediate between the rebels and the government intensively, which led to cease-fire agreements in June 2007 and, most recently, in February 2008.
Conflict evolution
Until 1962, when the republican revolution overthrew the imamate, the northern tribes of the Saada-region were the most influential actors in Yemen and the heart as well as the foundation of the Zaidi-Imamate, a Shiite Muslim kingdom in Northern Yemen.
Since then, these Shiite Muslim tribes have been more and more marginalised which led to kind of alienation between these tribes and the central government.
Nowadays, after the Yemeni reunification in 1990 and through demographic reasons, the former powerful tribes of the north are only a religious minority within the Yemeni society and politically powerless.
The northern territories of Yemen are underdeveloped. Without resources or industries, the unemployment-rate in this region is higher than thirty percent and welfare-structures are not essentially supported by the central government.
The tribes in this region are, in contrast to the majority of the Sunni Muslim Yemeni population, mainly Shia Muslim. As a result of the conflicts between these two currents within Islam, which have intensified recently, Yemen's Zaidi-Shiite minority sees itself increasingly on the defensive.
The combination of economic, political and religious marginalisation of the northern region and its tribes could be a reason for the extensive tensions between the Shiite-tribes in the Saada governorate and the central government
In 2004, these tensions erupted violently. Al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament, refused officially to pay religious taxes to the government and most of the northern population followed him. His “Faithful Youth”-movement also accused the Yemeni government of being too pro-American and refused obedience.
While the government tried to enforce the law, the situation escalated. Both sides blamed each other for starting the violent aggression. Al-Houthi and his supporters took over strategically important positions on several mountain-tops, blockaded essential highways and adopted guerilla-tactics for keeping the Yemeni army out of the Saada-region.
In September 2004, Hussein al-Houthi was killed by government troops and his brother, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, took over the control of the rebel-movement. Since then, the violence erupted four times heavily with thousands of casualties and tenthousands of displaced persons and domestic refugees.
The renewed confrontation in this conflict is, according to the Yemen Times, “the fifth Saada war”4 .
Sectarian war?
The sneaking but unproved suspicion of Iranian support for the Houthi-rebels as well as the influence of radical Sunni Muslim Salafis within the Yemeni army5 in this conflict underline the decisive meaning of religious aspects in the confrontation.
Local experts, like for example Mohamed al-Azaki in his article “On the Brink of Sectarian War”6,but also international analysts like Brian O`Neill7 from The Jamestown Foundation8 are concerned about the development towards sectarian war in this confrontation.
With regards to Iraq`s sectarian strife and the growing transregional tensions between Shiite and Sunni Muslim currents within Islam, there is a strong need for international mediation.
A starting-point could be an international backing of the strong Qatari mediation efforts within this conflict.
Political and Economic Crisis
In addition to, and also intensifying, the Houthi-conflict , increasingly obvious political and economic problems9 are threatening the country.
The country`s political stability is decisively endangered through the increasing division between the two former parts of the country, North and South Yemen. Because of economic misdevelopment in the South and the marginalisation of the southern elites including economic and political discriminiation of southern inhabitants after the civil-war 1994, there are upcoming calls for secession in the South and growing, partly violent, tensions between both sides.
The unilateral dominance of the northern Hashid tribal federation in Yemen`s government, while the country and its society is highly influenced by tribal identity, led to a weak legitimacy and a loss of control of the central government.
The economy10, which is highly dependent on oil exports, is on the verge of collapse due to falling production quotas11 and dwindling reserves. After several violent and deadly attacks on foreign tourists, the hopefully cherished tourism12 trade of Yemen suffered extensive losses. There is no industrial base and important investments in other sectors for diversiving the economy have been neglected.
Together with Yemen`s high population growth, its actual unemployment rate13 and the alarming water shortage in the country, a dangerous political and economic crisis is already there.
For answering these political and economic challenges, the Yemeni government has to implement major changes immediately. There is a strong need for economic investments into new sectors and the social system as well as for political pluralization.
Like Dr. Robert D. Burrowes from the University of Washigton wrote in the Yemen Times four month ago14:
“It seems that if the regime was not quickly reoriented, reconstituted or replaced, then Yemen is at risk of imminent political collapse.”
To avoid such a collapse and for repacifying the Houthi-conflict, Yemen will need very strong international support.
1 www.yemenonline.info/news-597.html
2 yementimes.com/article.shtml
3 yementimes.com/article.shtml
4 yementimes.com/article.shtml
5 yementimes.com/article.shtml
6 www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2715.cfm
7 www.jamestown.org/terrorism/analysts.php
8 www.jamestown.org/terrorism/index.php
9 www.qantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-476/_nr-980/i.html
10 indexmundi.com/yemen/economy_profile.html
11 www.yementimes.com/article.shtml
12 yementimes.com/article.shtml
13 www.indexmundi.com/yemen/unemployment_rate.html
14 yementimes.com/article.shtml
