Erstellt am: 09.04.2008 Autor: Philipp Schweers Status: Senior
Towards a “New Middle East”?
Changing conditions in a strategic important region
Every era in the history of the Middle East was marked by incisive developments and/or events in its beginning. Major turning points in the newer history of the Middle East are for example Napoleon`s expedition to Egypt in 1798, which symbolized that the former powerful and dreaded region had fallen behind upcoming Europe. Another one is the defeat and breakdown of the Ottoman Empire in World War I, followed by occupation and colonialisation in this region. Nowadays, in the aftermath of the Cold War and after nearly two decades of American domination in the Middle East, important strategic changes in the regional power structure are on the horizon. With the description of five features, this assumption should be underlined.
USA
Indeed, the United States are still the most influential actor in the region. But as a consequence of the Iraq-War disaster and together with debatable American actions and positions in inner-regional problems, the American legitimacy and its unique political position in the transregional context is decisively debilitated. While supporting rogue dictators like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt or the Saud-Dynasty in Saudi-Arabia and at the same time boycotting the democratic vote and its result in the Palestine Territories, the moral integrity of the United States seems, in the perception of the regional societies, biased and hypocritical. Therefore, its influence in the Middle East is decreasing and will be reduced furthermore. The American sense of mission and the unrivaled supremacy of the United States in this region is seriously challenged which will have strategic impacts for the whole western hemisphere. Especially the War in Iraq and its aftermath indicates a turning point in the regional power structure to the disadvantage of the United States.
New external actors
Other foreign powers are trying to utilize the weak position of the United States in the Middle East and pushing their specific and partly competing interest in the region. Upcoming and increasingly powerful China seeks to guarantee the availability of resources, attracting the regimes in the region with money and technical and military support without moral or political strings, acquitting itself obviously well. Russia takes the chance for demonstrating regained power and independence by for example resisting against pressuring Iran or continuing its dangerous armament supply to American rivals. The European Union aims to push a different approach to Middle Eastern problems, letting the United States alone with the situation in Iraq and trying to establish new strategies for political reform in the region and the region`s integration. These actors are emancipating themselves from American positions, which was hitherto, in this respect and form, unthinkable.
Iran
Through increasing oil prices, internal consolidation and external gain of power, Iran is the upcoming power in the region. The War in Iraq allows the Islamic Republic extensive exertion of influence on the Shiite parts of Iraq and together with its strong ties to Syria, Hezb`allah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Iran is the only real influential islamic power in the region. Its strong enmity to the United States and Israel attracts parts of the islamic masses and challenges the western values and perceptions. Its imperial ambitions, aiming on remaking the whole region and transregional domination, and its political and economic potential could mould the region`s prospective development strongly. Iran`s ambitions to build up an arsenal of Weapons of Mass Destruction are crucial and alarming, especially in context to its threatening propaganda towards Israel.
Israel
Together with Iran, Israel is the other most powerful state in the region and the only one with a modern economy and a liberal and democratic system. Israel struggles now and much more in future with the costs of its occupation of the West Bank, in political, economic and social meaning. The state and its society faces a constant, diffuse and multidimensional security challenge which draws continously from its spirits. Especially the Iranian threat and inexpiably enemies like Hezb`allah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza at its borders are a existential hazard and unacceptable for this country. Furthermore, considering Iran`s ambitions in nuclear armament in particular, the relation between Israel and its neighbourhood could escalate if the European Union and the United States will not mediate substantially and coherently, promoting a collective, logic and meaty method of solution. Without a finalization of the peace process between Israel and Palestine, the foreseeable future in the Middle East could develop very dangerously.
Politicalization of Islam
Most of the regimes in the Middle East are characterized by dictatorship, repression and illegitimacy. Without any connection to their own people, these regimes are currently often alienated and under internal pressure. Through decades-long oppression, the Middle Eastern dictators created, unintentionally, a political and intellectual vacuum in their own states. After the failure of Arab nationalism and Arab socialism, the negative experiences with democracy in for example Palestine, the ongoing illegitimacy and still dominated by the lack of political maturity and freedom within the regional societies, the Islam takes over the political scene in the Middle East, apparently providing a political perspective to the majority of the region`s inhabitants. This politicalization of religion is a very dangerous development, resulting from bad governance and repression. The rise of religious-political conglomerates like for example Hezb`allah, partly armed and mostly fundamentalist, are an unforeseeable risk in the regional political structure and therefore also in a global perspective a hazard.
These features, together with increasing instability in the former main political power in the region, Egypt, the regional growth of population and the still continuing lack of political maturity and freedom in the Middle East, could cause political, economic and social disruptions in the whole region and, in a more and more globalized world, could endanger the international security environment. The new post-American era in the Middle East, which is knocking at the door, seems to be much more vulnerable than the period before and contains obviously unforeseeable strategic risks for the whole world. This situation demands a more cooperative approach towards Middle Eastern issues, dominated by multilateral decision and diplomacy. For answering the Iranian challenge for example, engagement instead of containment is necessary. Our resource-dependance needs stabil and, especially longterm-oriented, good governance structures in the Middle East. Otherwise the coming era of a new order in the Middle East will be characterized by harm, instability and chaos.
